Is Tom Cruise still a go-to action hero? Hollywood, “Jack Reacher” say yes

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – Given his age and the tough year he’s had in the tabloids, is Tom Cruise still a go-to guy when Hollywood is looking for an action hero?

The answer is yes, based on the performance of his current movie, Paramount‘s “Jack Reacher.” It’s taken in $ 45 million in the 10 days since opening with $ 15.6 million in a very crowded and competitive holiday market. Its second week was a solid $ 14 million, and it’s added $ 22 million from overseas.

Holiday movies tend to have legs and “Reacher” has yet to roll out in the majority of major foreign territories, so both of those numbers, particularly the international, will be growing. All signs point to it surpassing $ 200 million at the worldwide box office. That’s not a blockbuster figure, and Paramount is staying mum on a sequel, but with a $ 60 million budget, “Jack Reacher” will make money for Paramount.

There were questions coming in. With his divorce from Katie Holmes and subsequent custody battle, Cruise is carrying plenty of public relations baggage. His foray earlier this year into musicals with “Rock of Ages” was critically applauded but proved a box-office dud. That’s on top of his well-known support for Scientology.

He’s 50 now, which might be the new 40 in the real world, but is starting to get on in years in the realm of action heroes. Daniel Craig is 44. Jeremy Renner is 41. We are a long way from “Top Gun” – that was 1986 – so it probably won’t be too, too long until “The Expendables” franchise comes calling for Cruise.

But in the meantime, “Reacher” is going to be profitable for Paramount and Cruise’s portrayal of the tough, ex-military drifter has drawn critical kudos, so there’s a bit of momentum now. And it’s clear from his upcoming schedule that Hollywood is still convinced he can carry an action film.

Next for Cruise will be two sci-fi movies: Universal’s “Oblivion” is due in April and “All You Need is Kill” is set for March 2014 from Warner Bros. After that, there’s a potential “Van Helsing” remake at Universal and “Mission: Impossible 5″ is on Paramount‘s 2015 slate.

His recent track record at the box office, particularly when you look at his performance in the action genre, suggests the studios are making a pretty good bet.

“Rock of Ages” may have crumpled, but “Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol” was a huge hit for Paramount, taking in nearly $ 700 million worldwide in 2011. “Knight & Day,” from Fox in 2010, and “Valkyrie,” from United Artists in 2008, both made over $ 200 million worldwide.

Supporting roles in “Tropic Thunder” and “Lions for Lambs” preceded those, but those came on the heels of two Paramount movies: “Mission Impossible 3,” which made nearly $ 400 million worldwide in 2006, and “War of the Worlds,” which did $ 592 million in the previous year.

The bottom line: Hollywood is still convinced you can still take Tom Cruise, movie action hero, to the bank.

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Letters: Recovery After Trauma

To the Editor:

Re “A New Focus on the ‘Post’ in Post-Traumatic Stress” (Mind, Dec. 25): Social contexts are well-established predictors of adjustment following trauma. Sexual abuse survivors who are believed and supported following an abuse disclosure fare better than those who are not, and returning veterans’ social support predicts P.T.S.D. over and above the extent of military trauma exposure. Interpersonal traumas cause greater psychological scars than do noninterpersonal traumas like accidents or disasters, with the worst outcomes linked to trauma perpetrated by someone to whom the victim was close.

Rachel Goldsmith

New York

The writer is a clinical psychologist.

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On the Road: With Demand Dropping, Airlines Focus on Fees

IN a move being watched by competitors, American Airlines is experimenting with a new pricing option that eliminates the potential penalty fee for changing flights for customers who pay a little extra for a basic coach ticket.

The initiative is arguably counterintuitive because domestic airlines have been piling up money in recent years from all sorts of fees — baggage fees and the change-penalty fees among them — on top of the base fares.

American’s new coach fare options are “another example of how we’re building toward a new, innovative and more modern airline,” said Rob Friedman, the vice president for marketing at the airline, which is about to emerge from bankruptcy court protection and is in talks with US Airways.

Oddly, while American moves to incorporate some stand-alone fees into some base fares, a process known as bundling a fare, Southwest Airlines seems to be going in the other direction. Southwest, which has long bragged about having simple fare structures that don’t include fees for things like changing tickets or checking bags, recently announced plans to increase its dependence on fees, a process known as unbundling.

It all adds up to more complexities on the chalkboard of airline fee and fare formulas.

The changes by American and Southwest suggest that domestic airlines in general are looking more closely at ways to experiment with revenue, especially from business travelers, as a new year begins with indications that demand is dropping.

In November, most airlines in the United States reported small declines in passenger demand and in load factors, the number of available seats filled by paying customers. Southwest, for example, reported that its revenue passenger-miles, a standard measure of demand, were off 3.3 percent compared with November 2011.

On Monday, the airline forecaster Michael Boyd, of the Boyd Group International, summed up his predictions for 2013 this way: “No traffic growth. Fewer flights. Less capacity.” Airlines, he added, will focus more “on revenue growth, not traffic volume.”

American’s new fare strategy encompasses two basic changes, both of which include some fees in coach fares. One is Choice Essential, which costs $68 extra for a round-trip domestic fare but eliminates the $150 penalty fee for ticket changes after purchase. It also drops the $25 fee for the first checked bag and gives the buyer “priority boarding.” (We’ll address the laughable scrum that airlines’ “priority boarding” has become in a future column.)

Another option, Choice Plus, costs $88 extra and adds penalty-free same-day standby change options, while also eliminating the change penalty. And it includes what American calls a free “premium beverage” (beer, wine, cocktail), and a 50 percent bonus on frequent-flier mileage awards, as well as priority boarding.

American’s lowest nonrefundable coach fare structure, which it now calls Choice, remains unchanged. That is, checked-bag fees and $150 penalty fees for making a reservations change remain in effect, while customers continue to have “the flexibility to purchase additional products à la carte,” as American put it.

The American penalty fee changes are aimed mostly at business travelers, the customers most likely to occasionally change plans after a ticket is purchased. Southwest’s recently announced fare and policy changes include a penalty fee on tickets that are not used and not canceled before flight time.

Southwest has long been valued by many business travelers for not charging a penalty fee to rebook a ticket, and that has not changed. Southwest said it was merely adding a “no-show fee” for customers using the cheapest fares who rebook “tickets that are not flown and not canceled by our passengers prior to a flight,” Robert E. Jordan, Southwest’s chief commercial officer, said at a recent meeting with airline stock market analysts.

But in describing initiatives that are certain to interest Southwest’s intensely loyal customer base once the details are announced early in 2013, Mr. Jordan also said, “We are increasing our ancillary fees” in general, without providing specifics. He said that Southwest hoped to raise an additional $100 million this year from new fees.

There is no indication that Southwest is considering revising its policies on basic rebooking or allowing the first two bags to be checked free. Still, an increasing reliance on fees will probably start to redefine the Southwest flying culture. For example, Mr. Jordan said, “we are testing a new revenue stream enabled by selling open and premium boarding positions, so that’s the A1 to A15 position, and selling those open positions at the gate.” Southwest also plans to increase its “EarlyBird” priority boarding fee to $12.50 from $10.

Airlines have come to depend mightily on revenue from fees. In 2011, domestic airlines raised $2.4 billion in change-penalty fees, up from $915.2 million in 2007, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, an agency of the Transportation Department.

And there is even more money in fees for checked bags. In 2007, a year before most airlines other than Southwest began charging for most checked bags on coach fares, domestic carriers raised a mere $464.3 million from such charges. Last year, the total was $3.4 billion.

E-mail: jsharkey@nytimes.com

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Venezuela's Hugo Chavez said to suffer 'complications'

CARACAS, Venezuela — Hugo Chavez has suffered "new complications" after his cancer surgery in Cuba, his vice president said Sunday, describing the Venezuelan leader's condition as delicate.

Vice President Nicolas Maduro did not give details about the complications, which he said came amid a respiratory infection. Maduro spoke in a televised address from Cuba.

Maduro arrived Saturday in Havana on a sudden trip to visit Chavez. He said Sunday that he had met with Chavez and he "referred to these complications."

"Thanks to his physical and spiritual strength, Comandante Chavez is facing this difficult situation," Maduro said, reading from a prepared statement.

"The president gave us precise instructions so that, after finishing the visit, we would tell the [Venezuelan] people about his current health condition," Maduro said. "President Chavez's state of health continues to be delicate, with complications that are being attended to, in a process not without risks."

The vice president spoke with a solemn expression alongside Chavez's eldest daughter, Rosa, and son-in-law, Jorge Arreaza, as well as Atty. Gen. Cilia Flores.

Maduro said he had met several times with Chavez's medical team and relatives. He said he would remain in Havana "for the coming hours" but didn't specify how long.

The Venezuelan leader has not been seen or heard from since undergoing his fourth cancer-related surgery Dec. 11, and government officials have said he might not return in time for his scheduled Jan. 10 inauguration for a new six-year term. If he were to die before being sworn in, a special election would be held to replace him.

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UK “X Factor” winner regains top chart spot

LONDON (Reuters) – James Arthur, winner of this year’s British version of the “X Factor” TV talent show, saw his debut single climb back to number one in the British pop charts on Sunday.

Arthur’s “Impossible” shot straight to the top earlier this month but was overtaken last week by a tribute song to the victims of the 1989 Hillsborough football stadium disaster, “He Ain’t Heavy, He’s My Brother”, a version of the ballad that was a worldwide hit for The Hollies.

That song has now slipped to fifth position, according to the Official Charts Company listings.

“Scream and Shout” by will.i.am, featuring Britney Spears, stayed at two while Psy’s monster video hit “Gangnam Style” was up three places to third.

In the album charts, British singer Emeli Sande stayed top with “Our Version Of Events”, with Olly Murs‘ “Right Place, Right Time” unchanged at two.

Rihanna was up three places to third with “Unapologetic”.

(Reporting by Stephen Addison; Editing by Alison Williams)

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Chinese Firm Is Cleared to Buy American DNA Sequencing Company

Ramin Rahimian for The New York Times

DNA sequencing machines at Complete Genomics in California. The firm dismissed concerns about its acquisition.

The federal government has given national security clearance to the controversial purchase of an American DNA sequencing company by a Chinese firm.

The Chinese firm, BGI-Shenzhen, said in a statement this weekend that its acquisition of Complete Genomics, based in Mountain View, Calif., had been cleared by the federal Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which reviews the national security implications of foreign takeovers of American companies. The deal still requires antitrust clearance by the Federal Trade Commission.

Some scientists, politicians and industry executives had said the takeover represented a threat to American competitiveness in DNA sequencing, a technology that is becoming crucial for the development of drugs, diagnostics and improved crops.

The fact that the $117.6 million deal was controversial at all reflects a change in the genomics community.

A decade ago, the Human Genome Project, in which scientists from many nations helped unravel the genetic blueprint of mankind, was celebrated for its spirit of international cooperation. One of the participants in the project was BGI, which was then known as the Beijing Genomics Institute.

But with DNA sequencing now becoming a big business and linchpin of the biotechnology industry, international rivalries and nationalism are starting to move front and center in any acquisition.

Much of the alarm about the deal has been raised by Illumina, a San Diego company that is the market leader in sequencing machines. It has potentially the most to lose from the deal because BGI might buy fewer Illumina products and even become a competitor. Weeks after the BGI deal was announced, Illumina made its own belated bid for Complete Genomics, offering 15 cents a share more than BGI’s bid of $3.15. But Complete Genomics rebuffed Illumina, saying such a merger would never clear antitrust review.

Illumina also hired a Washington lobbyist, the Glover Park Group, to stir up opposition to the deal in Congress. Representative Frank R. Wolf, Republican of Virginia, was the only member of Congress known to have publicly expressed concern.

BGI and Complete Genomics point out that Illumina has long sold its sequencing machines — including a record-setting order of 128 high-end machines — to BGI without raising any security concerns. Sequencing machines have not been subject to export controls like aerospace equipment, lasers, sensors and other gear that can have clear military uses.

“Illumina has never previously considered its business with BGI as ‘sensitive’ in the least,” Ye Yin, the chief operating officer of BGI, said in a November letter to Complete Genomics that was made public in a regulatory filing. In the letter, Illumina was accused of “obvious hypocrisy.”

BGI and Complete said that Illumina was trying to derail the agreement and acquire Complete Genomics itself in order to “eliminate its closest competitor, Complete.”

BGI is already one of the most prolific DNA sequencers in the world, but it buys the sequencing machines it uses from others, mainly Illumina.

Illumina, joined by some American scientists, said it worried that if BGI gained access to Complete’s sequencing technology, the Chinese company might use low prices to undercut the American sequencing companies that now dominate the industry.

Some also said that with Complete Genomics providing an American base, BGI would have access to more DNA samples from Americans, helping it compile a huge database of genetic information that could be used to develop drugs and diagnostic tests. Some also worried about protection of the privacy of genetic information.

“What’s to stop them from mining genomic data of American samples to some unknown nefarious end?” Elaine R. Mardis, co-director of the genome sequencing center at Washington University in St. Louis, said in an e-mail.

Dr. Mardis could not specify what kind of nefarious end she imagined. But opponents of the deal cited a November article in The Atlantic saying that in the future, pathogens could be genetically engineered to attack particular individuals, including the president, based on their DNA sequences.

BGI and Complete Genomics dismissed such concerns as preposterous.

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Mattel to Give Thomas the Tank Engine a Multimillion-Dollar Sheen

LOS ANGELES — One of the oldest preschool entertainment and toy franchises, Thomas the Tank Engine, is about to get a new marketing push.

Will parents get on board?

Mattel agreed last year to pay a hefty $680 million for Hit Entertainment, the British owner of Thomas, a cheery blue locomotive first introduced in a 1946 book. Starting in January, the toy manufacturer hopes to turn the talking train and his friends — Butch the Tow Truck, Engine Emily — into a property on par with Hot Wheels and Barbie.

“It’s been a brand that has been pretty bereft of investment,” said David Allmark, executive vice president of Mattel’s Fisher-Price brands. “We really believe that we can grow this on a worldwide basis, particularly in Latin America and Asia.”

Thomas is huge, with global retail sales totaling about $1 billion annually, according to analysts. Barbie has estimated annual worldwide sales of $2 billion, while Hot Wheels is closer to $1 billion. Hot Wheels, however, has stronger brand recognition in North America than Thomas and is a better seller in the toy aisle. “An established brand like Thomas helps Mattel, which has historically been stronger with girls than boys, in the extraordinarily competitive preschool market,” said Marty Brochstein, senior vice president for industry relations and information at the International Licensing Industry Merchandisers’ Association. “It is much more expensive and tenuous to try and create a franchise from scratch.”

Still, expansion of the Thomas franchise in Europe and North America could be difficult because of gender and age constraints. Analysts say the character appeals to both boys and girls from ages 1 to 3, but then girls tend to split off into dolls and dress up; boys stick around until about age 5, then lean toward more complicated toys and stories.

The effort to reposition Thomas includes new toys, in particular an expanded and enhanced line of wooden trains, and a new one-hour animated movie called “King of the Railway,” which will be released in the spring on DVD by Lionsgate and supported with “blue carpet” premieres in the United States and Europe. Mattel will also produce at least three more seasons of the “Thomas & Friends” television series, shown on PBS and Sprout.

Mr. Allmark said the chubby-cheeked Thomas, which was created by a British clergyman named Wilbert Awdry while trying to soothe his son, Christopher, who was sick with the measles, will continue to espouse “innocent, sweet life lessons.” But Mr. Allmark added that Mattel thinks a few minor changes — faster storytelling, for instance — can make the anthropomorphic train more relevant to modern children. “Some of it needs livening up a little bit,” he said.

Devotees who like Thomas for his simplicity may find those to be fighting words, but Mattel and its new Hit unit plan to back up their efforts with a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign called “Anytime Is Thomas Time.” Plans also call for a new online portal devoted to Thomas, more live events (look-alike trains steaming into cities across North America), and possibly a balloon in the next Macy’s Thanksgiving parade.

“When you are successful for as long as Thomas has been, you can become part of the woodwork,” said Shari Donnenfeld, head of Hit Global Brands. “We need to reinforce the brand by reminding people why they love it and introducing new content.”

Besides Mattel, multiple entertainment companies, including Walt Disney, weighed Hit’s prospects but passed, deciding that Thomas came with too many downsides, given the asking price. TV episodes and movies are expensive to produce, for instance, and DVDs do not sell the way they used to.

Mattel needed a preschool franchise to reinforce its Fisher-Price business, analysts say. Last year, the division lost an important Sesame Street license to a rival, Hasbro, and is coming off a few difficult years marked by recalls, including the removal from shelves of 10 million Fisher-Price toys in 2010. Last year, worldwide Fisher-Price sales totaled $2.16 billion, a 3 percent decline from a year earlier.

Mr. Allmark called Hit, which also owns characters like Barney, Angelina Ballerina and Bob the Builder, “a pretty rare diamond.”

Thomas has been a brand in flux in recent years. In 2009, Hit dropped the old-fashioned animation style that had been the TV program’s hallmark in favor of computer-generated images. The trains also began to speak on the televised show for the first time. The changes risked alienating some parents, but ratings in certain important demographics have increased 30 percent, according to Nielsen data.

Computerized animation has also allowed Hit to expand Thomas deeper into the digital realm; there are 15 related apps, and Mattel plans to introduce four more in the coming months.

Thomas faces challengers in the hotly competitive preschool market. Disney is planning an increased retail push tied to its “Jake and the Never Land Pirates” program. But retailers like Toys “R” Us note that Mattel and its Fisher-Price unit have the muscle to secure expanded shelf space for Thomas and his friends.

“Fisher-Price brings extraordinary product development, but they also have an unbelievable marketing machine,” said Richard Barry, chief merchandising officer for Toys “R” Us. He added, “Thomas is a brand that we absolutely love.”

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Buddhist temple doesn't always inspire peaceful reactions

The sound of chanting echoed through the makeshift temple, to the slow steady pulse of a drum.

Forty-nine days had passed since Jonathan Van's uncle had died in Vietnam, and he and his family gathered at Tinh Xa Giac Ly in Westminster, chanting so that his spirit might find its path. The puffs of incense dancing in the air would serve as the vehicle to carry his spirit to the next life, according to Buddhist tradition.

The relatives knelt on the floor of the two-car garage, high heels and sandals scattered outside on the driveway, as other loved ones spilled out to the patio, reciting from yellow songbooks.

The sound, for Van, calmed his own spirit.

"For me the chanting is very soothing," Van said. "Relieves stress."

Less so for some of the neighbors, however.

The temple sits among the suburban tract homes at Titus Street and Hazard Avenue, just steps from Little Saigon, converted about 26 years ago from a typical family home to a house of worship.

The sound of the chanting and the unfamiliar smells and rituals are an unwelcome intrusion to some in the neighborhood in the heart of Orange County, the traffic an inconvenience.

Officials said misunderstandings between the start-up temples and residents who find their neighborhoods transformed are an ongoing issue in the Asian communities that sprawl across Westminster, Garden Grove and Santa Ana.

Rita Leon and her brother Rudy Lastra live across the street from Tinh Xa Giac Ly and say their conflicts with the temple's worshipers have almost turned physical.

And traffic generated by visitors, they said, has turned their residential street into a bustling thoroughfare.

"It's like the 405 Freeway on a Monday at rush hour," Lastra said.

Temple organizers also clashed with the city, which after receiving numerous complaints from residents cited them for code violations involving outdoor cooking equipment as well as gas, electrical and plumbing lines, said Art Bashmakian, Westminster's planning manager.

The temple's leader, the Most Venerable Thich Giác Si, said he is mindful of his neighbors' concerns and reminds visitors to park outside the neighborhood to reduce the number of cars streaming along the residential streets.

"Whatever they like to say or express to us, we like to listen," he said.

Rusty Kennedy, executive director of the Orange County Human Relations Commission, said budding religious groups often set up shop in suburban areas, and such clashes can be expected.

"In many religious communities you will see this tradition of starting a congregation in your home before you're able to buy or build," Kennedy said.

Even though the face of central Orange County began changing decades ago with the arrival of Vietnamese immigrants, the tiny neighborhood temples sometimes seem foreign to residents when they spring up.

"There's no question where you're confronted with something you don't understand or are unfamiliar with, you're uncomfortable," Kennedy said.

Often stereotypes about a culture or its images — such as the Buddhist swastika or Sikh turbans — can "color our thinking" about a neighbor, Kennedy said. But the conflicts, he said, sometimes sort themselves out.

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Praying Hitler in ex-Warsaw ghetto sparks emotion

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — A statue of Adolf Hitler praying on his knees is on display in the former Warsaw Ghetto, the place where so many Jews were killed or sent to their deaths by Hitler’s regime, and it is provoking mixed reactions.

The work, “HIM” by Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, has drawn many visitors since it was installed last month. It is visible only from a distance, and the artist doesn’t make explicit what Hitler is praying for, but the broader point, organizers say, is to make people reflect on the nature of evil.

In any case, some are angered by the statue’s presence in such a sensitive site.

One Jewish advocacy group, the Simon Wiesenthal Center, this week called the statue’s placement “a senseless provocation which insults the memory of the Nazis’ Jewish victims.”

“As far as the Jews were concerned, Hitler’s only ‘prayer’ was that they be wiped off the face of the earth,” the group’s Israel director, Efraim Zuroff, said in a statement.

However, many others are praising the artwork, saying it has a strong emotional impact. And organizers defend putting it on display in the former ghetto.

Fabio Cavallucci, director of the Center for Contemporary Art, which oversaw the installation, said, “There is no intention from the side of the artist or the center to insult Jewish memory.”

“It’s an artwork that tries to speak about the situation of hidden evil everywhere,” he said.

The Warsaw ghetto was an area of the city which the Nazis sealed off after they invaded Poland. They forced Jews to live in cramped, inhuman conditions there as they awaited deportation to death camps. Many died from hunger or disease or were shot by the Germans before they could be transported to the camps.

The Hitler installation is just one object in a retrospective of Cattelan’s work titled “Amen,” a show that explores life, death, good and evil. The other works are on display at the center itself, which is housed in the Ujazdowski Castle.

The Hitler representation is visible from a hole in a wooden gate across town on Prozna Street. Viewers only see the back of the small figure praying in a courtyard. Because of its small size, it appears to be a harmless schoolboy.

“Every criminal was once a tender, innocent and defenseless child,” the center said in a commentary on the work.

Poland’s chief rabbi, Michael Schudrich, said he was consulted on the installation’s placement ahead of time and did not oppose it because he saw value in the artist’s attempt to try to raise moral questions by provoking viewers.

He said he was reassured by curators who told him there was no intention of rehabilitating Hitler but rather of showing that evil can present itself in the guise of a “sweet praying child.”

“I felt there could be educational value to it,” said Schudrich, who also wrote an introduction to the exhibition’s catalogue in which he says art can “force us to face the evil of the world.”

On Friday, a stream of people walked by to view the work, and many praised it.

“It had a big emotional impact on me. It’s provocative, but it’s not offensive,” said Zofia Jablonska, a 30-year-old lawyer. “Having him pray in the place where he would kill people — this was the best place to put it.”

Cattelan caused controversy in Warsaw in 2000 when another gallery showed his work “La Nona Ora” — or “The Ninth Hour” — which depicts the late Pope John Paul II being crushed by a meteorite. That offended many in Poland, which is both deeply Catholic and was John Paul’s homeland.

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Senate Leaders Racing to Beat Fiscal Deadline

WASHINGTON — Senate leaders and their aides spent Saturday searching for a formula to extend tax cuts for most Americans that could win bipartisan support in the Senate and final approval in the fractious House by the new year, hoping to prevent large tax increases and budget cuts that could threaten the fragile economy.

As part of the last-minute negotiations, the lawmakers were haggling over unemployment benefits, cuts in Medicare payments to doctors, taxes on large inheritances and how to limit the impact of the alternative minimum tax, a parallel income tax system that is intended to ensure the rich pay a fair share but that is increasingly encroaching on the middle class.

President Obama said that if talks between the Senate leaders broke down, he wanted the Senate to schedule an up-or-down vote on a narrower measure that would extend only the middle-class tax breaks and unemployment benefits. The Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, said he would schedule such a vote on Monday absent a deal.

If Congress is unable to act before the new year, Washington will effectively usher in a series of automatic tax increases and a program of drastic spending cuts that economists say could pitch the country back into recession.

The president and lawmakers put those spending cuts in place this year as draconian incentives that would force them to confront the nation’s growing debt. Now, lawmakers are trying to keep them from happening, though it seemed most likely on Saturday that the cuts, known as sequestration, would be left for the next Congress, to be sworn in this week.

“We just can’t afford a politically self-inflicted wound to our economy,” Mr. Obama said Saturday in his weekly address. “The housing market is healing, but that could stall if folks are seeing smaller paychecks. The unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been since 2008, but already families and businesses are starting to hold back because of the dysfunction they see in Washington.”

The fear of another painful economic slowdown appears to have accelerated deal-making on Capitol Hill with just 48 hours left before the so-called fiscal cliff arrives. Weeks of public sniping between Mr. Reid, the Democratic leader, and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, ebbed on Friday evening with pledges of cooperation and optimism from both.

On Saturday, though, that sentiment was put to the test as 98 senators waited for word whether their leaders had come up with a proposal that might pass muster with members of both parties. The first votes in the Senate, if needed, are scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

“It’s a little like playing Russian roulette with the economy,” said Senator Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia. “The consequences could be enormous.”

Members of Congress were mostly absent from the Capitol on Saturday, after two days of Senate votes on other matters and a day before both chambers were to reconvene. However, senior aides were working on proposals in their offices or at their homes.

Speaker John A. Boehner stopped by the Capitol briefly to see his chief of staff on Saturday afternoon. Mr. McConnell spent much of the day in his office.

Aides to Mr. Reid were expecting to receive offers from Mr. McConnell’s staff, but no progress was reported by midday. Even if the talks took a positive turn, Senate aides said, no announcement was expected before the leaders briefed their caucuses on Sunday.

The chief sticking point among lawmakers and the president continued to be how to set tax rates for the next decade and beyond. With the Bush-era tax cuts expiring, Mr. Obama and Democrats have said they want tax rates to rise on income over $250,000 a year, while Republicans want a higher threshold, perhaps at $400,000.

Democrats and Republicans are also divided on the tax on inherited estates, which currently hits inheritances over $5 million at 35 percent. On Jan. 1, it is scheduled to rise to 55 percent beginning with inheritances exceeding $1 million.

The political drama in Washington over the weekend was given greater urgency by the fear that the economic gains of the past two years could be lost if no deal is reached.

Some of the consequences of Congressional inaction would be felt almost at once on Tuesday, in employee paychecks, doctors’ offices and financial markets. Analysts said the effect would be cumulative, building over time.

An early barometer would probably be the financial markets, where skittish investors, as they have during previous Congressional cliffhangers, could send the stock market lower on fears of another prolonged period of economic distress.

In 2011, the political battles over whether to raise the nation’s borrowing limit prompted Standard & Poor’s to downgrade its rating of American debt, suggesting a higher risk of default. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 635 points in a volatile day of trading after the downgrade.

This month, traders have again nervously watched the political maneuvering in Washington, and the markets have jumped or dropped at tidbits of news from the negotiations. Two weeks ago, Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, predicted that if lawmakers failed to reach a deal, “the economy will, I think, go off the cliff.”

Immediately — regardless of whether a deal is reached — every working American’s taxes will go up because neither party is fighting to extend a Social Security payroll tax cut that has been in place for two years.

Robert Pear and Jennifer Steinhauer contributed reporting.

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